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History shows this 4th quarter rally is likely almost over

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Canaccord Genuity isn’t expecting the S & P 500 to go much higher before year-end. Inflation and rising interest rates have weighed on stocks this year. However, the market has recently rallied, starting after the October consumer price index data, reported in November, showed that prices rose less than expected. That gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve will slow down its interest rate hikes. That said, chief market strategist, Tony Dwyer anticipates the S & P 500 ‘s gain in the fourth quarter will be capped at 12%, based on prior years’ rallies when the market had fallen in the first nine months. “History shows any year with such a weak start through the first three quarters leads to a fourth-quarter rally with an end-of-quarter gain between 8-12%,” Dwyer wrote in a note Monday. Only 2008 saw a negative fourth quarter after a similar weak start, he added. That was the year of the Lehman failure and the Global Financial Crisis. The S & P is up 10.16% so far this quarter, as of Monday’s close. The index lost 24.8% from December 31 through Sept. 30. “The SPX closed last week in the middle of that expected outcome range suggesting no significant tactical edge into year-end,” Dwyer said. “Our near-term game plan is to fade a meaningful Q4 move above 12%.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

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